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Keir Starmer and his supporters will be hoping the resignation of Morgan McSweeney can buy him some time. But in the coming days and weeks the prime minister has to negotiate a series of ominous hurdles, any of which could end his time in office.
Date unknown: release of Mandelson documents
The release of documents on Peter Mandelson’s appointment as US ambassador are expected to include embarrassing personal messages between ministers, advisers and the disgraced peer. This is especially so now the decision is out of the control of No 10.
In a vain attempt to take the sting out of the fury about Mandelson’s relationship with the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, last Wednesday Starmer agreed to release these documents. But his proposal that No 10 would control the process threatened a backbench rebellion. Instead, in a sign of Starmer’s weakness, the cross-party intelligence and security committee will decide what gets released.
It is unclear how long the committee will take to decide what gets released, but the first documents could emerge in coming days.
Starmer believes the release will vindicate his position that Mandelson repeatedly lied to No 10 about his ties to Epstein. But the key question is why Starmer believed Mandelson’s lies when there was so much already in the public domain about his close links with Epstein, even after the financier’s conviction for sex trafficking.
26 February: Gorton and Denton byelection
Labour comfortably won this Manchester seat at the 2024 general election with more than 50% of the vote and a majority of more than 13,000. But there is a real prospect Labour could finish third behind the Greens and Reform UK in a vote that’s due on 26 February.
A heavy Labour loss would heap more pressure on the PM. Last month Starmer personally intervened to block Andy Burnham, the popular Manchester mayor, from standing in the seat, to prevent a potential leadership challenge. If Labour loses a byelection that it believes Burnham could have won, Starmer is likely to be criticised for putting personal preservation above the good of the Labour party.
Starmer may not have the stomach to carry on if Labour loses the seat. When the party lost the Hartlepool byelection in 2021, Starmer is reported to have been close to quitting, just over a year since being elected as Labour leader.
Late February: white paper on special educational needs (Send)
A schools white paper, expected later this month, will outline Labour plans on the fraught issue of special educational needs (Send) provision in state schools, which threatens to further squeeze school funding.
Spending on Send is expected to reach £14bn in two years’ time and it has been warned this could bankrupt four out of five English councils.
If ministers restrict Send funding they face fury from parents of the growing number of children with special needs. But if they accept the need for extra funding, that will mean higher taxes or reduced spending elsewhere, which will deepen Labour’s unpopularity.
If Starmer’s government gets this balance wrong it could badly stumble.
3 March: spring statement
Rachel Reeves is due to make a spring statement on 3 March and will be keen to avoid a similar series of leaks and U-turns to those that dogged the autumn budget.
The chancellor, a key ally of Starmer, wants to convey “stability and certainty” to the markets. There have even been reports that she is under pressure to delegate the spring statement to a junior minister to play down the significance of the event.
No new tax and spending measures are currently planned, but pressure on finances could force Reeves’s hand. If anything in the statement spooks the markets, this could destabilise not just the economy but Starmer’s grip on power.
7 May: local, Scottish and Welsh elections
The elections on 7 May to local councils, the Scottish parliament and the Welsh Senedd have long been seen as the darkest cloud on Starmer’s horizon. They will give millions of voters the chance to kick his leadership.
At a time when Starmer has the lowest approval rating of any prime minister, the results are expected to be especially grim for him.
In Wales, Labour looks set to be voted into opposition for the first time since devolution, with Plaid Cymru and Reform UK expected to make substantial gains. At Holyrood, the Scottish National party (SNP) is on course for a majority despite their own difficulties.
In England, Labour is expected to lose hundreds of councillors to the Liberal Democrats, Greens, and crucially, Reform UK. If the news is very bad, Starmer no longer has a longstanding chief of staff available to take the blame.
