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Everything always seems clearer in the morning, and in the cold grey light of Thursday, the prognosis for Manchester United is bleak. While Tottenham face an awkward calculation – weighing up whether the delirium of a first European trophy in 41 years offsets their worst league season in terms of proportion of games lost – for Manchester United the equation is far starker.
Ruben Amorim will only play in one way. He is committed absolutely, uncompromisingly, irrevocably to the 3-4-2-1. Liverpool considered him, looked at their squad, realised the two things did not go together, appointed Arne Slot and won the league. Manchester United looked at their squad, flinched at the horror, and seem to have reasoned it was such a mess that it was impossible to find a manager whose philosophy would fit. There was a dissenting voice, Dan Ashworth, but at the court of Sir Jim Ratcliffe, reasoned doubts are as unwelcome as a free lunch.
This is where Ratcliffe deserves credit. Where nobody else could see a pattern, he found one. It turns out this squad does have a unifying theme, and the appointment of Amorim uncovered it: what linked this disparate group of players, cobbled together under five permanent managers over 11 years, is that none of them can play 3-4-2-1.
The Europa League final was a mesmerisingly dreadful game of football. An average of 52 seconds elapsed between every pass Tottenham completed, and yet they still won with relative ease. Almost every one of the handful of chances United made – notably the Rasmus Højlund effort cleared off the line by Micky van de Ven and the second-half header Bruno Fernandes put wide – was the result of a Spurs error.
Amad Diallo offered some invention in the first half but faded in the second. There was one little burst from Alejandro Garnacho. And that was it. With 72% possession, United were left to rely on individual inspiration from young forwards and Tottenham mistakes.
It turned out Europa League form – United were unbeaten in European competition until Wednesday – was deceptive. Casemiro and Harry Maguire may thrive when there is a little more time on the ball, but up against Premier League opposition again, they struggled as they have all season.
The mind inevitably goes back to a comment Fernandes made after United had narrowly beaten Ipswich in February: Amorim, he said, had been shocked by how good a newly promoted side threatened by relegation could be. There are no Estrela Amadoras or Gil Vicentes in English football; the Premier League is relentlessly demanding in a way no other competition in the world is. The league may have clear financial stratifications but its wealth means the level even at the bottom end is, by global standards, extremely high. Which is, if course, how United and Spurs ended up in the Europa League final in the first place.
And so United are faced with a dilemma. If they persist with Amorim, the squad will need a complete and total overhaul. Of the team who played in Bilbao, how many could be of use in a 3-4-2-1? Lenny Yoro and Patrick Dorgu, probably. Diallo, perhaps. Mason Mount and Fernandes, maybe, although neither offered much evidence on Wednesday night.
That level of makeover will require hundreds of millions of pounds that United simply do not have. The way Ratcliffe has been speaking, there would not have been vast sums available even if United had been in the Champions League. Without any European football at all, budgets will be tight. And besides, which self-respecting player now would want to join United?
The only reason to go to Old Trafford is for the surge players get when they leave: Scott McTominay will win Serie A if Napoli beat Cagliari on Friday; Marcus Rashford has been rejuvenated at Aston Villa; Antony can’t stop scoring brilliant goals for Real Betis and either he or Jadon Sancho will lift the Conference League next week. The contrast with Kobbie Mainoo, young goalscoring hero of last season’s FA Cup final transformed into peripheral figure, is unavoidable.
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In the days before profitability and sustainability rules and financial fair play, United could have spent their way out of trouble. That option is no longer available to them. This will be a long, slow rebuild. Barring astonishing public funding, a new stadium that might increase revenues will itself be a drain on resources.
So the question United now face is clear: do they place their faith in Amorim, slowly build a squad that can play his way, accepting many of their first-choice signings may no longer be available to them, or do they make the switch and turn to a more flexible manager who may be able to elevate this squad.
The problem there is that almost nobody seems to want to stay. Amorim and Fernandes both said that they would be prepared to leave if it is in the best interests of the club, the manager even offering to go without a payoff, which does not seem like the most complicated diplomatic code to crack. Garnacho described the season as “shit” and hinted he would be open to offers and Luke Shaw said every player had to ask themselves whether they really want to be there. Frankly, why would anybody?
For United, the question is how much they believe in Amorim. Because if he is going to fix things, it is not going to be quick.
