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When a group of Russian and Iranian foreign policy officials arranged to meet in Moscow for a conference titled “Russian-Iranian cooperation in a changing world”, they probably did not anticipate just how timely that phrase would turn out to be.
Seated around a table on Wednesday at the President hotel near the Kremlin, officials from both sides were forced to confront a stark new reality: Iran’s regime – a key ally of Moscow – is facing its most serious threat in decades.
As Israel and Donald Trump demand Tehran’s “unconditional surrender”, Moscow is growing increasingly anxious about the fate of Iran, while tacitly acknowledging its limited ability to influence the unfolding events.
Nikita Smagin, an independent expert on Russia-Iran ties, said: “It has long been clear that Russia wouldn’t defend Iran militarily, because it is simply not prepared to risk a confrontation with Israel and the United States for Iran’s sake.”
Analysts say Moscow’s cautious response reflects a cold political calculus: prioritising its war in Ukraine while simultaneously trying to dissuade the US from direct involvement in a conflict that could lead to regime change in Tehran.
The Kremlin is unlikely to arm Iran, let alone get involved in the fighting, said a Russian source with ties to the foreign ministry. “Moscow clearly doesn’t want conflict with Trump and is also doing everything it can to urge the US to return to diplomacy. But Russia’s priority remains avoiding any moves that could undermine its warming ties with the new US administration or prompt a shift in Trump’s stance on Ukraine,” the source said.
Still, the Kremlin stands to lose from a prolonged US-backed Israeli military campaign that devastates Iran’s economic and military infrastructure and threatens the survival of the regime in Tehran.
“If the current Iranian regime collapses, it would be both a strategic and reputational blow for Russia,” the source with ties to the Russian foreign ministry said.
“A bigger loss than the fall of Damascus,” the source added, referring to Moscow’s diminished influence over Syria after the fall of Bashar al-Assad, a longtime Kremlin ally whose eventual defeat marked the end of a costly decade-long Russian intervention.
On the surface, Russia’s muted response and restrained condemnations stand in contrast to the deepening ties it has forged with Iran since its 2022 invasion of Ukraine – a war that placed Moscow alongside Tehran among the regimes most heavily hit by sanctions.
In the early months of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Iran proved to be an important partner to the Kremlin, supplying Moscow with thousands of combat drones used to strike Ukrainian cities. Tehran also later sent instructors to Russia to help set up a drone production facility, based on Iranian designs, deep in the Ural mountains.
Vladimir Putin in turn praised the deepening ties between the two countries. In January he and his Iranian counterpart, Masoud Pezeshkian, signed a wide-ranging “comprehensive strategic partnership treaty” aimed at strengthening military cooperation and intelligence sharing.
Still, the two nations’ relationship has always been complex, observers say. When signing the military agreement, both countries insisted on omitting a mutual defence clause, meaning Moscow now is under no legal obligation to provide military assistance to Iran. Russia has also been slow to deliver a range of weapons Tehran has requested.
“Despite repeated requests from the Iranian side for various types of weapons – air defence systems and fighter jets – none of this has been transferred to Iran by Russia to date,” Smagin said.
Partly due to its entanglement in Ukraine and its growing ties with other regional players, including Saudi Arabia, Moscow has shown little urgency on propping up Iran, even as Tehran’s position has weakened after blows against its key proxy, the Lebanese movement Hezbollah.
The Kremlin, meanwhile, has largely decoupled its reliance on Iranian military support, having already acquired the expertise to mass-produce drones domestically.
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Some in Moscow have even sought to put a positive spin on Israel’s assault on Iran. For one, oil prices have surged to their highest level in four months – and are expected to rise further – offering Moscow a much-needed economic boost at a time when falling global energy prices had threatened to squeeze its wartime budget.
The conflict has also drawn the full attention of Trump, who in recent days has barely mentioned Ukraine. He cut short a trip to the G7 summit, skipping a previously scheduled meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Ruslan Pukhov, the director of the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a Moscow defence thinktank, wrote on Telegram: “It is likely that Ukraine will suffer the greatest military and political damage in this situation, apart from Iran itself, of course. A new war in the Middle East will not only distract the world’s attention from the [conflict in Ukraine] but will also, apparently, contribute to the final reorientation of the US towards providing military assistance to Israel.”
But while these may offer short-term gains, the long-term picture is far more precarious for Russia, analysts and insiders say.
Russia risks losing a key strategic partner – along with years of political and economic capital – in a blow that could seriously undermine its broader geopolitical ambitions. Over the past two years, Moscow has become Iran’s leading foreign investor, committing billions to gas, energy and infrastructure projects – all of which could be jeopardised if the regime in Tehran falls.
And unlike some of Moscow’s other allies, such as Belarus, Russia shares little in the way of historical or cultural affinity with Iran. Their partnership has been forged less through tradition than through a shared hostility towards the west – and the experience of navigating life under sanctions.
“If this regime falls, I think it will be much harder for Russia to retain its assets and influence in the country,” said Hanna Notte, a Berlin-based expert on Russian foreign policy.
Notte said the worst-case scenario for Moscow would be a Middle East dominated by US-aligned powers. “That would be a heavy blow to Russia.”
