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Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron are expected to announce plans for French police to do more to block small boats crossing the Channel at a summit in London this week, but a wider deal on returning asylum seekers is still up in the air.
While details remain limited, with French officials still believed to be finalising what action the country can take with boats that are already in shallow waters, an announcement on new plans is expected on Wednesday.
It is also still possible that Starmer and the visiting French president could set out plans for a “one in, one out” returns scheme for asylum seekers who make it to Britain, although UK officials say this is less likely.
This latter scheme would allow for the return of small boat arrivals in exchange for the UK accepting another asylum seeker from France who is seen as having a clearer right to claim asylum in Britain, such as through family ties.
Macron arrives on Tuesday for a state visit, which will involve events with royals and other pageantry, but is also scheduled to include an Anglo-French summit, and other meetings with Starmer.
France is expected to announce that it will allow police to intervene in shallow waters up to 300 metres from shore in order to stop small boats leaving. This will need changes to existing protocol that do not contravene the UN convention on the law of the sea, which bars any intervention at sea that is not an actual rescue.
It is understood that a French review of such tactics has been completed, with French and British officials continuing talks about what more could be done.
On Friday, French police used knives to puncture a boat in shallow seas near Boulogne, in northern France, although it is not known if this was a sign of new protocols or a one-off.
Downing Street declined to comment on possible announcements before the visit, although Starmer’s deputy spokesperson indicated that there was likely to be concrete progress on small boat crossings.
He told reporters: “We expect to make progress on a wide range of issues and joint priorities, and that includes migration. I’m not going to get ahead of the summit this week, but there are a range of maritime tactics that we have been discussing and have secured agreement with the French over.
“It is operationally and legally complicated, but we expect these tactics to be operationalised soon.
“It’s for French authorities to make operational decisions for themselves, but as I say, it’s a complex area, but we are working extremely closely with the French. Our relationship with them is better than it has been for a long time.”
The hope of the “one in, one out plan”, in combination of a greater likelihood of boats being stopped in the water, is that this could dissuade people from paying people-smugglers to try to get them across the Channel.
It is still not known if that plan will be ready to be announced in time for Macron’s visit, with UK officials saying there were still “lots of moving parts”.
One UK government source said: “We want to get it right. Signing it during the visit would be ideal, but it would be even more ideal to make sure it works properly.”
Starmer and Yvette Cooper are facing sustained political pressure to reduce the number of people arriving across the Channel. Despite a government promise to “smash the gangs” organising crossings, more than 20,000 people have crossed to the UK in the first six months of this year, up 48% on the equivalent period in 2024.
