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Jakub Krupa
That point by Jon about exit polls being only as good as the answers they get from voters is absolutely crucial.
With so many voters of Simion having little trust in the electoral process – in line with their candidate’s comments – there is potential for all sorts of issues with data if they, say, refused to answer pollsters’ questions.
And, as mentioned earlier, then we have the diaspora vote, not included in exit polls. With record numbers of voters overseas, they could play a significant role here.
For what it’s worth, Simion appears to be doubling down on his rejection of the exit polls: he just posted on X claiming without offering any further evidence that he is “the new president of Romania.”
Well: that’s not what the exit polls say, so let’s wait for more official results.
Simion rejects exit poll results
But Dan’s rival, far-right George Simion is not willing to accept these numbers.
In fighting comments after the result was announced, he rejects the exit polls and quotes his own (unverified) data, claiming that he is actually ahead, in a passionate victory speech.
Expect this to be a long night.
Romanians want ‘dialogue, not hatred’ – Dan
In his immediate comments after the exit polls were announced, Nicușor Dan praises the “impressive strength” of the Romanian society that wants “profound change”, and says the victory shows Romanians wanted “dialogue, not hatred”.
High turnout a factor in Romanian vote – snap analysis
Jon Henley
It’s perhaps not that surprising given massive 64.5% turnout, up from 53% in the first round. Analysts have all said a higher turnout would favour Dan.
But it’s worth remembering the first round exit polls underestimated Simion by nearly 10 points.
They depend on voters being honest about who they voted for.
Jakub Krupa
That’s a higher result for Nicușor Dan than perhaps expected. The turnout clearly plays a role here, too.
But these are just exit polls, and they do not seem to account for the crucial diaspora vote.
Second exit poll CURS:
Nicușor Dan 54.1%
George Simion 45.9%
Bucharest mayor Nicușor Dan on course to win in Romania – exit poll
Exit poll Avangarde:
Nicușor Dan 54.9%
George Simion 45.1%
Romanian exit polls are expected imminently.
Ready?
Keep an eye on Romanian diaspora vote
Jon Henley
A key point to watch for as the Romanian results start to come in after polling stations close at 9pm local time (8pm CET) will be the vote of the country’s large diaspora, which in the first round two weeks ago voted more than 60% for Simion.
Over the past couple of decades almost 20% of Romania’s population have gone looking for better opportunities abroad and estimates of the current diaspora begin at about 4 million. By 7pm local time, the astonishingly high number of 1.6 million already had cast their votes, including more than 260,000 in the UK.
“The diaspora has been strongly anti-system for some time, which now means they are strongly far-right,” said Cristian Pirvelescu, head of the National University of Political Studies and Public Administration in Bucharest.
“In Italy, where the Romanian community is more than 1 million, nearly 75% voted for Simion in the first round. Romanians abroad live in what is a kind of ‘virtual Romania’, very online, and they don’t believe in the traditional media.”
The far-right candidate also did well in Germany and Spain, which have large Romanian communities. “Their vote is a protest vote against the traditional parties, which are seen as corrupt,” said the Sciences-Po researcher Antonela Cappelle-Pogacean.
“It’s also a vote with socioeconomic motivations, since in these western societies, the Romanian diaspora is largely working-class. Finally, it’s also a vote about identity – they are in a way torn between their rebuilt lives and desire to return to Romania.”
In central and eastern Europe – countries such as Poland, Moldova and Hungary – the pro-European candidate, Bucharest mayor Nicusor Dan, finished first, most likely reflecting Simion’s opposition to sending further military aid to Ukraine. There are more than 900 polling stations abroad, with voting allowed over three days.
Whatever its motivations, the diaspora vote – perhaps more than 1 million ballots, as much as 10% of the first-round total – can clearly swing a tight election. And complicating matters further, few Romanian opinion polls, which are in any case not especially accurate, attempt to predict it.
Interestingly, however, one poll this week that did include voters living abroad showed Simion and Dan neck-and-neck. Turnout at home and abroad, all observers agree, will be critical on Sunday, with a higher participation rate seen as favouring Dan.
Romanian exit polls expected soon
To make things more complicated, Romanian media reported that there are as many as three companies doing exit polls tonight.
With the race being so close, it may be best to wait a bit until we make any determination on the result, but we will bring you them as they drop.
And there is one more element in the Romanian vote that we need to keep an eye on and that makes things more complicated, and that it’s the (incredibly high) number of diaspora voters.
Over to Jon Henley to explain.
Romanian candidates speak of 'crucial' election to decide country's future
Jon Henley
Both candidates in the Romanian election obviously have long cast their votes.
“This is a turning point, a crucial election,” the Bucharest mayor Nicușor Dan said as he cast his ballot, adding that he voted “for a European direction ... not Romania’s isolation”.
His far-right rival, George Simion, said he “voted against the inequalities and injustices done to the Romanian people” and “for our future to be decided by Romanian people”.
'Pivotal' presidential run-off in Romania – explainer
Jon Henley
Romanians are voting in a pivotal presidential run-off that could radically alter their country’s strategic alignment and economic prospects.
The Romanian contest, the most consequential of the three, pits a brash, EU-critical, Trump-admiring populist, Georgie Simion, against a centrist independent, Nicușor Dan, in a knife-edge vote that analysts have called most important in the country’s post-communist history.
Recent polls have shown the gap between the two candidates closing, with one putting them neck and neck and another placing Dan – who has described the vote as a battle between “a pro-western and an anti-western Romania” – ahead.
The vote is a rerun of last November’s ballot, won by a far-right, Moscow-friendly firebrand, Călin Georgescu, who was barred from standing again after the vote was cancelled amid allegations of campaign finance violations and Russian meddling.
Simion has promised to nominate Georgescu, who is under formal investigation on counts including misreporting campaign spending, illegal use of digital technology and promoting fascist groups, as prime minister if he becomes president.
Romanian presidents have a semi-executive role with considerable powers over foreign policy, national security, defence spending and judicial appointments. They can also dissolve parliament if MPs reject two prime ministerial nominations.
Jakub Krupa
We start the night in Romania, so let’s go straight to Jon Henley to quickly bring us up to date on what’s at stake tonight.
Welcome to Super Sunday
Jakub Krupa
Dobry wieczór, boa noite, bună seara,
or simply good evening and welcome to our live coverage of Super Sunday in Europe with crucial elections in Poland, Portugal, and Romania.
It’s Jakub Krupa here, in Warsaw, to guide you through tonight’s exit polls, snap reactions and early results coming from the three EU countries.
We will start with Romania where the polls will close in about half an hour – 7pm BST, 8pm CEST, 9pm local time – followed by Poland and Portugal an hour later.
Romanians are voting in a pivotal presidential run-off that could radically alter their country’s strategic alignment and economic prospects.
The election pits a brash, EU-critical, Trump-admiring populist, George Simion, against centrist independent Bucharest mayor Nicuşor Dan in a knife-edge vote that analysts have called most important in the country’s post-communist history.
We will later move to Poland for the first round of the presidential election there which could be a pivotal moment for the country’s coalition government, and to Portugal which hosts its third election in three years.
It may take a little while before we get any conclusive results though as margins are expected to be fairly thin.
But, but, but – don’t worry! We will bring you all the key updates: starting with exit polls, through snap reactions and late polls, all the way to first analyses and official results.
I’ll bring you updates from our correspondents across Europe, including Jon Henley and Sam Jones who followed the campaigns in Romania and Portugal, and Jennifer Rankin in Brussels.
Ready? Let’s go.
