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China is growing its stockpile of nuclear warheads at a faster rate than any other country, according to newly published research.
A report published on Monday by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) estimated that China now has at least 600 nuclear warheads, with about 100 per year being added to the stockpile since 2023.
At a regular foreign ministry press briefing on Monday, spokesperson Guo Jiakun declined to comment on the report but said: “China has always adhered to the nuclear strategy of self-defence, always maintained its nuclear forces at the minimum level required for national security, and has not participated in the arms race.”
Guo said that China adheres to a policy of not being the first to use nuclear weapons at any time, and that China would not use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear armed states.
“China will continue to firmly commit to safeguarding its legitimate security interests and maintaining world peace and stability,” Guo said.
At the current rate of increases, China could have 1,500 nuclear warheads by 2035. That is nearly as many as Russia and the US currently have ready for use at short notice.
Russia and the US’s total inventories of weapons, which include both ready-to-use weapons and mothballed warheads, are far bigger. According to SIPRI’s research, Russia has 5,459 warheads while the US has 5,177. The two countries hold about 90% of the global stockpile.
Last year, the US approved a new nuclear strategy that is focused on the threat from China.
China is thought to have 24 nuclear warheads that are already placed on missiles or located in bases with operational forces, meaning that they could be deployed at very short notice.
Xi Jinping, China’s leader, has expanded the country’s nuclear arsenal faster than any other Chinese leader. Previous leaders, such as Deng Xiaoping, argued that China only needed modest reserves to act as a deterrent for potential adversaries.
China’s nuclear capabilities are of particular concern to Taiwan, the self-governing island that China claims as part of its own territory. Beijing has resolved to “unify” Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China, using force if necessary. Chinese scholars have argued that having a powerful deterrent, such as nuclear weapons, could prevent any third party from intervening in a conflict. The threat of a US intervention in support of Taiwan is one of the factors that is keeping a war at bay.
The report’s authors noted fewer warheads are being dismantled each year, while the pace of deployment of new nuclear weapons is accelerating.
Hans M. Kristensen, an associate senior fellow at SIPRI, said: “The era of reductions in the number of nuclear weapons in the world, which had lasted since the end of the cold war, is coming to an end”.
Hundreds of facilities for intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), long-range missiles used to deliver nuclear weapons, are being built in desert fields in the north of China. Three mountainous areas in the east of China also house ICBM silos, according to the report.
Additional research by Lillian Yang
